Present and prospective analysis of global air traffic regional markets

May 2024

Air traffic resilience after the covid crisis

In 2020, commercial air transport experienced the most severe turbulence in its history. This unprecedented crisis caused global traffic to fall by more than half. In terms of passenger numbers, the year 2023 almost caught up to the traffic levels of 2019. In 2024, global air traffic is expected to reach and exceed pre-crisis levels.

However, airlines have not yet regained the net margin they had before the health crisis. In terms of aircraft manufacturing, Airbus has maintained its leader position for the fifth consecutive year, despite significant production delays.

Recovery dynamics remain uneven across geographic areas: Europe stands out with a recovery driven by Southern European countries; North America displays almost pre-crisis traffic levels; Asia-Pacific remains a dynamic area representing a third of global traffic. The correlation between the growth of global GDP and that of air traffic hides significant disparities between the most mature zones for air transport and emerging countries.

In Europe, Ryanair and other low-cost carriers are the major players in the recovery of traffic. France, the 6th European country, witnessed a nearly 100 million passengers' transit in 2019. Domestic traffic, accounting for nearly a quarter of French traffic, has experienced a significant halt since the restart of the activity in France.

North America, the most mature and concentrated (in terms of airlines) market for air transport, is driven by the United States and the largest global airlines (United, American and Delta Airlines).

In Asia-Pacific, Chinese traffic accounts for more than a third of the area's traffic. Unlike Europe and North America, this area is characterized by its low concentration. Half of the Asian traffic is shared by sixteen airlines, whereas in North America, only three share it.

The "Rest of the World" is made of three geographic regions: Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. In 2023, these three regions jointly represented 16% of air traffic.

In the long term, traffic is expected to continue its growth while needing to meet environmental challenges, and with a change in pre-Covid customer demographics. With an increase in the number of flights per passenger and GDP per capita, air traffic is expected to exceed 8 billion departing passengers in about twenty years. Growth is primarily driven by non-mature markets with a focus on Asia-Pacific followed by the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.

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